{ "protocolVersion": "context-1.0", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-21", "kind": "Event-prior retrospective context-rule comparison; historical outcomes were already known", "target": "Assembly election-day winning-party code", "vintageVerified": false, "prospectivelyValidated": false, "probabilitiesAvailable": false, "rules": { "repeat": "Prior Assembly seat-winning party; prior IND abstains", "statewide": "Prior statewide Assembly seat-count leader everywhere; ties and IND leader abstain", "parliament": "Prior ordinary Parliamentary segment leading-party code; IND, ties, missing/withheld or unresolved coding abstain" }, "comparison": "All three primary scores use the intersection of eligible seats. Full eligible denominators are separate. Existing Assembly-only reports are unchanged.", "limitations": [ "Only two historical transitions; seats are correlated, not independent repeated elections.", "Historical outcomes were inspected before this protocol; no unseen or prospective validation is claimed.", "Sources were acquired in 2026; original historical publication-version availability remains unverified.", "2014 uses combined-sheet rows with five selected scan comparisons, not sixty complete station audits.", "2019 Henglep remains withheld; its combined-sheet row is not substituted.", "Parliamentary local leads are contextual inputs, never Assembly target outcomes.", "No fitted model, causal findings, sensitive-identity inputs, 2027 favourites or probabilities are produced." ], "windows": [ { "assemblyYear": 2012, "parliamentYear": 2014, "targetYear": 2017, "commonSeats": 60, "commonScores": { "repeat": { "correct": 23, "total": 60, "accuracy": 0.38333333333333336, "confusion": [ { "predicted": "INC", "actual": "INC", "count": 21 }, { "predicted": "INC", "actual": "BJP", "count": 14 }, { "predicted": "AITC", "actual": "BJP", "count": 4 }, { "predicted": "AITC", "actual": "INC", "count": 3 }, { "predicted": "INC", "actual": "NPF", "count": 3 }, { "predicted": "MSCP", "actual": "BJP", "count": 3 }, { "predicted": "INC", "actual": "NPP", "count": 2 }, { "predicted": "MSCP", "actual": "INC", "count": 2 }, { "predicted": "NPF", "actual": "INC", "count": 2 }, { "predicted": "INC", "actual": "AITC", "count": 1 }, { "predicted": "INC", "actual": "IND", "count": 1 }, { "predicted": "LJP", "actual": "LJP", "count": 1 }, { "predicted": "NCP", "actual": "NPP", "count": 1 }, { "predicted": "NPF", "actual": "NPF", "count": 1 }, { "predicted": "NPF", "actual": "NPP", "count": 1 } ] }, "statewide": { "correct": 28, "total": 60, "accuracy": 0.4666666666666667, "confusion": [ { "predicted": "INC", "actual": "INC", "count": 28 }, { "predicted": "INC", "actual": "BJP", "count": 21 }, { "predicted": "INC", "actual": "NPF", "count": 4 }, { "predicted": "INC", "actual": "NPP", "count": 4 }, { "predicted": "INC", "actual": "AITC", "count": 1 }, { "predicted": "INC", "actual": "IND", "count": 1 }, { "predicted": "INC", "actual": "LJP", "count": 1 } ] }, "parliament": { "correct": 26, "total": 60, "accuracy": 0.43333333333333335, "confusion": [ { "predicted": "INC", "actual": "INC", "count": 21 }, { "predicted": "INC", "actual": "BJP", "count": 16 }, { "predicted": "CPI", "actual": "BJP", "count": 4 }, { "predicted": "NPF", "actual": "NPF", "count": 4 }, { "predicted": "NPF", "actual": "INC", "count": 3 }, { "predicted": "CPI", "actual": "INC", "count": 2 }, { "predicted": "CPI", "actual": "NPP", "count": 2 }, { "predicted": "NPF", "actual": "NPP", "count": 2 }, { "predicted": "AITC", "actual": "INC", "count": 1 }, { "predicted": "BJP", "actual": "AITC", "count": 1 }, { "predicted": "BJP", "actual": "BJP", "count": 1 }, { "predicted": "BJP", "actual": "INC", "count": 1 }, { "predicted": "CPI", "actual": "LJP", "count": 1 }, { "predicted": "INC", "actual": "IND", "count": 1 } ] } }, "fullEligibleScores": { "repeat": { "correct": 23, "total": 60, "accuracy": 0.38333333333333336, "confusion": [ { "predicted": "INC", "actual": "INC", "count": 21 }, { "predicted": "INC", "actual": "BJP", "count": 14 }, { "predicted": "AITC", "actual": "BJP", "count": 4 }, { "predicted": "AITC", "actual": "INC", "count": 3 }, { "predicted": "INC", "actual": "NPF", "count": 3 }, { "predicted": "MSCP", "actual": "BJP", "count": 3 }, { "predicted": "INC", "actual": "NPP", "count": 2 }, { "predicted": "MSCP", "actual": "INC", "count": 2 }, { "predicted": "NPF", "actual": "INC", "count": 2 }, { "predicted": "INC", "actual": "AITC", "count": 1 }, { "predicted": "INC", "actual": "IND", "count": 1 }, { "predicted": "LJP", "actual": "LJP", "count": 1 }, { "predicted": "NCP", "actual": "NPP", "count": 1 }, { "predicted": "NPF", "actual": "NPF", "count": 1 }, { "predicted": "NPF", "actual": "NPP", "count": 1 } ] }, "statewide": { "correct": 28, "total": 60, "accuracy": 0.4666666666666667, "confusion": [ { "predicted": "INC", "actual": "INC", "count": 28 }, { "predicted": "INC", "actual": "BJP", "count": 21 }, { "predicted": "INC", "actual": "NPF", "count": 4 }, { "predicted": "INC", "actual": "NPP", "count": 4 }, { "predicted": "INC", "actual": "AITC", "count": 1 }, { "predicted": "INC", "actual": "IND", "count": 1 }, { "predicted": "INC", "actual": "LJP", "count": 1 } ] }, "parliament": { "correct": 26, "total": 60, "accuracy": 0.43333333333333335, "confusion": [ { "predicted": "INC", "actual": "INC", "count": 21 }, { "predicted": "INC", "actual": "BJP", "count": 16 }, { "predicted": "CPI", "actual": "BJP", "count": 4 }, { "predicted": "NPF", "actual": "NPF", "count": 4 }, { "predicted": "NPF", "actual": "INC", "count": 3 }, { "predicted": "CPI", "actual": "INC", "count": 2 }, { "predicted": "CPI", "actual": "NPP", "count": 2 }, { "predicted": "NPF", "actual": "NPP", "count": 2 }, { 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