{
  "schemaVersion": 1,
  "id": "manipur-2007-2012-reference-replay-v1",
  "frozenAt": "2026-10-22",
  "status": "frozen-before-implementation-and-score-execution",
  "historicalOutcomesAlreadyAvailable": true,
  "prospectivePreregistration": false,
  "sourceAcceptanceId": "manipur-2007-2012-winner-party-source-acceptance-v1",
  "sourceAcceptanceSha256": "7254292ded13c9689d2313e426fbd966c57da4717a231997456ab0e60ba43008",
  "sourceInputs": {
    "predictorPath": "data/research/assembly-2007-original-register.json",
    "predictorSha256": "1fd272a2bcb4c4e4c818aedeed5c14d2b7c38383103ccf34165e9a17db212241",
    "lineagePath": "data/research/assembly-2007-2012-seat-lineage.json",
    "lineageSha256": "5cd48a8ec545d2b7669f529f927546fbabfac8673b1e92aeea321048255da0cc",
    "targetPath": "data/processed/winners.json",
    "targetYear": 2012,
    "targetSha256": "cba5b2aec5f6018cb7ce3a3fd2ddca30f66c8b74de9bc2a6ffb8852897432803"
  },
  "predictionRules": [
    {
      "id": "prior-seat-party",
      "rule": "Copy the original 2007 elected-member party code for the same AC. Abstain if the prior code is IND. Do not infer candidate identity or current-party continuity."
    },
    {
      "id": "prior-statewide-leader",
      "rule": "Count 2007 elected seat entries by exact non-IND party code; predict the unique largest party for every AC. Abstain on a tie or no eligible party. Count seats, not unique people."
    }
  ],
  "cohortRules": [
    "Require exactly sixty distinct AC numbers 1–60 in both the predictor register and the year-2012 target subset. Invalid target/source structures fail the run; they are not silently excluded.",
    "Generate both prediction sets solely from the 2007 register before passing any year-2012 winner to the scorer. Later years in the target file cannot be read as predictor features.",
    "Main comparison uses the same seats where both rules produce predictions. Prior independent seats are excluded from the common cohort by the fixed rule, not by subsequent success or failure.",
    "Publish separate full-eligibility scores for each rule and every excluded or erroneous seat. Preserve their different denominators."
  ],
  "partyPolicy": "Exact historical source codes only. No NPP/NPEP merger, alliance assumptions, fuzzy party aliases, candidate identity joins or IND organization.",
  "outputs": [
    "A separate 2007→2012 report with frozen input/protocol/implementation fingerprints, detached prediction arrays, exact-party errors, exclusions, common and full scores.",
    "Do not change the existing 2012→2017, 2017→2022 or Parliamentary-context golden reports."
  ],
  "forbiddenInputs": [
    "2012 winners or target-year candidate attributes during prediction",
    "2009 Parliamentary leads as an Assembly target",
    "2018/2019 handbook text as a historical predictor feature",
    "2024 Parliamentary results",
    "2026 directories or observations",
    "2027 nominations, alliances, opinions or probabilities"
  ],
  "readiness": {
    "historicalPublicationVersionVerified": false,
    "prospectiveForecastValidated": false,
    "probabilitiesAvailable": false,
    "calibrationApproved": false
  },
  "limitations": [
    "Protocol written after past outcomes and earlier benchmark scores were available; this is a retrospective reconstruction, not an unseen test.",
    "Additional seats within one transition are not independent historical election windows. Another transition alone does not establish calibration.",
    "Documentary AC concordance is distinct from certified territorial geometry."
  ]
}