{ "protocolVersion": "1.0", "reviewedAt": "2026-10-20", "target": "Assembly election-day winning party code", "kind": "Retrospective fixed-rule benchmark replay; not a prospective forecast", "rules": { "repeat": "Repeat the previous Assembly winning-party code for that seat; abstain for previous IND", "statewide": "Predict the previous statewide largest party by Assembly seat count everywhere; alphabetic tie break", "comparison": "Both benchmarks scored on the same non-IND-prior cohort; excluded seats remain visible", "partyContinuity": "Literal source party codes; no assumed mergers, alliance pooling, defections or candidate identity matches" }, "windows": [ { "trainingYear": 2012, "targetYear": 2017, "statewideParty": "INC", "totalSeats": 60, "eligibleSeats": 60, "excludedSeats": [], "repeat": { "correct": 23, "total": 60, "accuracy": 0.38333333333333336, "confusion": [ { "predicted": "INC", "actual": "INC", "count": 21 }, { "predicted": "INC", "actual": "BJP", "count": 14 }, { 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{ "predicted": "INC", "actual": "AITC", "count": 1 }, { "predicted": "INC", "actual": "IND", "count": 1 }, { "predicted": "INC", "actual": "LJP", "count": 1 } ] }, "statewideFullCohort": { "correct": 28, "total": 60, "accuracy": 0.4666666666666667, "confusion": [ { "predicted": "INC", "actual": "INC", "count": 28 }, { "predicted": "INC", "actual": "BJP", "count": 21 }, { "predicted": "INC", "actual": "NPF", "count": 4 }, { "predicted": "INC", "actual": "NPP", "count": 4 }, { "predicted": "INC", "actual": "AITC", "count": 1 }, { "predicted": "INC", "actual": "IND", "count": 1 }, { "predicted": "INC", "actual": "LJP", "count": 1 } ] }, "rows": [ { "ac": 1, "previousParty": "INC", "repeatParty": "INC", "statewideParty": "INC", "eligible": true, "exclusion": null, "actualParty": "INC" }, { "ac": 2, "previousParty": "INC", "repeatParty": "INC", "statewideParty": "INC", "eligible": true, "exclusion": null, "actualParty": "BJP" }, { "ac": 3, "previousParty": "INC", "repeatParty": "INC", 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"exclusion": null, "actualParty": "INC" }, { "ac": 32, "previousParty": "INC", "repeatParty": "INC", "statewideParty": "INC", "eligible": true, "exclusion": null, "actualParty": "INC" }, { "ac": 33, "previousParty": "BJP", "repeatParty": "BJP", "statewideParty": "INC", "eligible": true, "exclusion": null, "actualParty": "BJP" }, { "ac": 34, "previousParty": "INC", "repeatParty": "INC", "statewideParty": "INC", "eligible": true, "exclusion": null, "actualParty": "BJP" }, { "ac": 35, "previousParty": "INC", "repeatParty": "INC", "statewideParty": "INC", "eligible": true, "exclusion": null, "actualParty": "INC" }, { "ac": 36, "previousParty": "INC", "repeatParty": "INC", "statewideParty": "INC", "eligible": true, "exclusion": null, "actualParty": "BJP" }, { "ac": 37, "previousParty": "INC", "repeatParty": "INC", "statewideParty": "INC", "eligible": true, "exclusion": null, "actualParty": "NPP" }, { "ac": 38, "previousParty": "BJP", "repeatParty": "BJP", "statewideParty": "INC", 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"actualParty": "NPF" }, { "ac": 45, "previousParty": "NPF", "repeatParty": "NPF", "statewideParty": "INC", "eligible": true, "exclusion": null, "actualParty": "NPF" }, { "ac": 46, "previousParty": "INC", "repeatParty": "INC", "statewideParty": "INC", "eligible": true, "exclusion": null, "actualParty": "KPA" }, { "ac": 47, "previousParty": "INC", "repeatParty": "INC", "statewideParty": "INC", "eligible": true, "exclusion": null, "actualParty": "IND" }, { "ac": 48, "previousParty": "NPF", "repeatParty": "NPF", "statewideParty": "INC", "eligible": true, "exclusion": null, "actualParty": "NPF" }, { "ac": 49, "previousParty": "NPP", "repeatParty": "NPP", "statewideParty": "INC", "eligible": true, "exclusion": null, "actualParty": "NPP" }, { "ac": 50, "previousParty": "BJP", "repeatParty": "BJP", "statewideParty": "INC", "eligible": true, "exclusion": null, "actualParty": "BJP" }, { "ac": 51, "previousParty": "INC", "repeatParty": "INC", "statewideParty": "INC", "eligible": true, "exclusion": null, "actualParty": "IND" }, { "ac": 52, "previousParty": "NPF", "repeatParty": "NPF", "statewideParty": "INC", "eligible": true, "exclusion": null, "actualParty": "NPF" }, { "ac": 53, "previousParty": "BJP", "repeatParty": "BJP", "statewideParty": "INC", "eligible": true, "exclusion": null, "actualParty": "NPP" }, { "ac": 54, "previousParty": "INC", "repeatParty": "INC", "statewideParty": "INC", "eligible": true, "exclusion": null, "actualParty": "BJP" }, { "ac": 55, "previousParty": "INC", "repeatParty": "INC", "statewideParty": "INC", "eligible": true, "exclusion": null, "actualParty": "JD(U)" }, { "ac": 56, "previousParty": "BJP", "repeatParty": "BJP", "statewideParty": "INC", "eligible": true, "exclusion": null, "actualParty": "BJP" }, { "ac": 57, "previousParty": "BJP", "repeatParty": "BJP", "statewideParty": "INC", "eligible": true, "exclusion": null, "actualParty": "BJP" }, { "ac": 58, "previousParty": "BJP", "repeatParty": "BJP", "statewideParty": "INC", "eligible": true, "exclusion": null, "actualParty": "JD(U)" }, { "ac": 59, "previousParty": "INC", "repeatParty": "INC", "statewideParty": "INC", "eligible": true, "exclusion": null, "actualParty": "BJP" }, { "ac": 60, "previousParty": "INC", "repeatParty": "INC", "statewideParty": "INC", "eligible": true, "exclusion": null, "actualParty": "KPA" } ] } ], "limitations": [ "Only two Assembly transitions; correlated constituencies are not independent repeated elections.", "Rules are replayed retrospectively after outcomes are known, not prospectively pre-registered predictions.", "No probabilities, calibration scores or 2027 predictions are produced.", "The 2024 Parliamentary election is not substituted for an Assembly target.", "Winner-only registers cover all sixty seats, including the 2017 AC21 winner whose full candidate contest remains withheld.", "Current party affiliations, alliances, candidate choices, polls, turnout and post-2022 events are not model inputs." ], "input": { "path": "data/processed/winners.json", "sha256": "cba5b2aec5f6018cb7ce3a3fd2ddca30f66c8b74de9bc2a6ffb8852897432803", "sourceRegister": "https://github.com/ethereum007/manipur/blob/main/data/processed/sources.json", "winnerRegister": "https://github.com/ethereum007/manipur/blob/main/data/processed/winners.json" } }