FORECAST RESEARCH / THE INPUT REGISTER
A sixty-seat register of election observations, directory snapshots and missing 2027 inputs. Test the cut-off before treating a variable as historical evidence.
RESEARCH SNAPSHOT 20 October 2026
REFERENCE PERIOD 2022 Assembly results, 2024 Parliamentary context and a dated 2026 directory capture
SCOPE Contextual input inventory; no fitted model, candidate forecast or 2027 probabilities
All 60 seats have twelve defined input slots, including three explicitly missing reviewed 2027 input sets. A populated row is an observation with a source.
The historical validation lab uses prior-election winner codes only. Nothing in this register is silently added to those benchmark replays. A future model needs its own versioned feature selection, source cut-off and validation protocol.
1 · Khundrakpam — twelve defined input slots. These coverage counts are not a model-readiness percentage or probability.
“Observed by cut-off” means a documented platform capture by that date. It does not certify current membership or approve a variable for a fitted model. An unverified historical vintage does not mean an original result was unpublished; its earlier publication/archive timestamp has not been established here. Values remain visible below for audit, including rows marked withheld; they are not passed to a model.
| Input | Observed value | Event / capture | Cut-off assessment | Source and scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 Assembly winning party | INC | 2022Capture: 2026-10-20 | Observed by cut-off | Election-day party, not current affiliation. Source p.2 ↗Fingerprintb0ac19b6c7c143e8827a833fa0ce44ce051541c513728c264ab1518df08b8788 |
| 2022 Assembly runner-up party | BJP | 2022Capture: 2026-10-20 | Observed by cut-off | Historical candidate field, not 2027 nominees. Source p.2 ↗Fingerprintb0ac19b6c7c143e8827a833fa0ce44ce051541c513728c264ab1518df08b8788 |
| 2022 Assembly margin · votes | 215 | 2022Capture: 2026-10-20 | Observed by cut-off | Winner minus runner-up; not turnout or future support. Source p.2 ↗Fingerprintb0ac19b6c7c143e8827a833fa0ce44ce051541c513728c264ab1518df08b8788 |
| 2022 Assembly margin · percentage points | 0.87 | 2022Capture: 2026-10-20 | Observed by cut-off | Denominator is all candidate votes, excluding NOTA and rejected ballots. Source p.2 ↗Fingerprintb0ac19b6c7c143e8827a833fa0ce44ce051541c513728c264ab1518df08b8788 |
| 2022 Assembly winner share · percent | 49.35 | 2022Capture: 2026-10-20 | Observed by cut-off | Candidate-vote share, not electorate share. Source p.2 ↗Fingerprintb0ac19b6c7c143e8827a833fa0ce44ce051541c513728c264ab1518df08b8788 |
| 2024 Parliamentary segment lead party | INC | 2024Capture: 2026-10-20 | Observed by cut-off | Local Parliamentary lead, not an Assembly win or interchangeable target. Source p.3 ↗Fingerprint72f2bd5c2a1c887a7a05bd36ebfc197c0c47e133c490be7ad2b268c62ce68f32 |
| 2024 Parliamentary segment margin · percentage points | 10.54 | 2024Capture: 2026-10-20 | Observed by cut-off | Ordinary geographic segment only; special and residual votes are separate. Source p.3 ↗Fingerprint72f2bd5c2a1c887a7a05bd36ebfc197c0c47e133c490be7ad2b268c62ce68f32 |
| 2026 directory party label observed | INC | 2026Capture: 2026-10-20 | Observed by cut-off | Observed label only. Individual effective date is not supplied; vacant entries have no party value. Source ↗Fingerprint6c3d253bbdffeee56c125187e352b9bdc92e34a9d317b9d25ab1764afcea2af3 |
| 2026 directory status observed | listed-member | 2026Capture: 2026-10-20 | Observed by cut-off | Institutional directory observation, not certified current membership. Source ↗Fingerprint6c3d253bbdffeee56c125187e352b9bdc92e34a9d317b9d25ab1764afcea2af3 |
| Complete verified 2027 nominee set | Not indexed | Not establishedCapture: Unavailable | Missing reviewed input | No complete reviewed input is indexed here. Missing does not mean no announcements or studies exist. |
| Verified 2027 alliance assumptions | Not indexed | Not establishedCapture: Unavailable | Missing reviewed input | No complete reviewed input is indexed here. Missing does not mean no announcements or studies exist. |
| Reviewed representative opinion input | Not indexed | Not establishedCapture: Unavailable | Missing reviewed input | No complete reviewed input is indexed here. Missing does not mean no announcements or studies exist. |
Assembly and Parliamentary feature hashes identify original PDF bytes. Directory hashes identify the allowlisted profile-field extract, not the entire web page. No candidate identities are merged and no religion, ethnicity, voter profile or unreviewed disclosure value is used.
EARLIER INPUT RESEARCH / 2014 AND 2019
124 distinct official source URLs were downloaded and opened as PDFs: indexed segment sheets, four combined result documents and a separately tracked diagnostic source. The originals are archived in GitHub. The original acquisition snapshot is separate from the later numerical audits: sixty 2014 combined-sheet rows and fifty-nine 2019 individual segment tables are now available with distinct review scopes.
| Election | Index references | Distinct indexed URLs | Indexed PDFs with native text | Current research status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 Parliamentary | 60/60 · all links opened | 59 | 0 | 60 rows reconciled from native combined sheets; five scanned footers compared. Individual segment station audits remain pending. Heirok index discrepancy preserved. |
| 2019 Parliamentary | 60/60 · all links opened | 60 | 60 | 59 segment tables numerically reconciled; Henglep withheld after conflicting official totals. See the separate numerical audit below. |
The 2014 index links AC33 Heirok to 34.pdf, which is also linked for Wangjing Tentha. The original 34.pdf header reads 34 - Wangjing Tentha. A separately retrieved 33.pdf header reads 33 - Heirok.
The original index reference and diagnostic recovery remain separate in the audit. No duplicate 34.pdf vote table is silently assigned to Heirok, and no numerical values are promoted by the header check alone.
Inspect the original 2014 index ↗2014 Parliamentary observations could eventually provide pre-2017 context, and 2019 could provide pre-2022 context. They remain Parliamentary results and cannot replace Assembly election targets.
Remaining work: broader 2014 individual scanned-sheet checks, resolution of the 2019 Henglep contradiction, and historical source-availability evidence. No fitted model, 2027 likelihood or complete all-page review is claimed.
Inspect the official 2019 index ↗Captured and selected headers reviewed 20 October 2026. Downloading or finding native text does not validate a vote table. Current twelve-slot input snapshots and winner-only benchmark outputs are unchanged by this source acquisition.
2019 PARLIAMENTARY / NUMERICAL SOURCE AUDIT
All 60 original segment PDFs were checked by hash. Fifty-nine candidate tables pass their printed footer arithmetic and polling-station column sums. Henglep is withheld because two official sources disagree. These are Parliamentary segment observations, not Assembly wins or approved forecasting features.
The segment footer prints candidate columns 3, 5 and 7 as 924, 17,473 and 196. The combined Parliamentary sheet prints 944, 17,743 and 199. The segment candidate cells sum to 25,678 while its printed valid-vote total is 25,971.
Three polling-station rows also fail candidate-sum accounting: 57/7 (176 versus 196), 57/21 (535 versus 538) and 57/47 (152 versus 422). Their deficits total 293 votes. Both source versions are preserved; no replacement is silently selected.
Inspect Henglep segment footer ↗All 32 Inner segment totals reconcile candidate by candidate with the combined ordinary total. The 27 released Outer tables plus the separately transcribed combined Henglep row reconcile with the Outer total; that cross-check does not resolve Henglep’s conflict.
The combined sheets explicitly label postal ballots. Ordinary plus postal equals the grand total for every candidate and ballot category. No postal votes are allocated to individual Assembly segments.
Moirang’s printed station ID “17/15” is preserved under the PDF’s AC27 header. Thoubal 31/24 column 8 has a selected visual zero-with-stray-dots correction, recorded with its page locator. Selected visual checks are not an independent human audit.
| AC | Segment | Candidate votes | NOTA | Polling stations | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khundrakpam ↗ | 21,033 | 78 | 40 | Reconciled totals |
| 2 | Heingang ↗ | 28,101 | 68 | 45 | Reconciled totals |
| 3 | Khurai ↗ | 26,363 | 120 | 43 | Reconciled totals |
| 4 | Khetrigao ↗ | 27,491 | 74 | 46 | Reconciled totals |
| 5 | Thongju ↗ | 26,687 | 84 | 45 | Reconciled totals |
| 6 | Keirao ↗ | 24,334 | 67 | 39 | Reconciled totals |
| 7 | Andro ↗ | 29,608 | 88 | 44 | Reconciled totals |
| 8 | Lamlai ↗ | 22,638 | 81 | 40 | Reconciled totals |
| 9 | Thangmeiband ↗ | 19,988 | 76 | 42 | Reconciled totals |
| 10 | Uripok ↗ | 17,087 | 69 | 34 | Reconciled totals |
| 11 | Sagolband ↗ | 16,436 | 80 | 36 | Reconciled totals |
| 12 | Keishamthong ↗ | 20,601 | 89 | 40 | Reconciled totals |
| 13 | Singjamei ↗ | 16,365 | 49 | 29 | Reconciled totals |
| 14 | Yaiskul ↗ | 19,774 | 105 | 38 | Reconciled totals |
| 15 | Wangkhei ↗ | 26,175 | 88 | 50 | Reconciled totals |
| 16 | Sekmai ↗ | 20,739 | 119 | 41 | Reconciled totals |
| 17 | Lamsang ↗ | 26,238 | 97 | 45 | Reconciled totals |
| 18 | Konthoujam ↗ | 23,552 | 86 | 41 | Reconciled totals |
| 19 | Patsoi ↗ | 27,675 | 135 | 49 | Reconciled totals |
| 20 | Langthabal ↗ | 22,652 | 92 | 39 | Reconciled totals |
| 21 | Naoriya Pakhanglakpa ↗ | 27,863 | 87 | 47 | Reconciled totals |
| 22 | Wangoi ↗ | 23,514 | 63 | 40 | Reconciled totals |
| 23 | Mayang Imphal ↗ | 23,940 | 75 | 41 | Reconciled totals |
| 24 | Nambol ↗ | 26,916 | 61 | 45 | Reconciled totals |
| 25 | Oinam ↗ | 21,051 | 46 | 39 | Reconciled totals |
| 26 | Bishenpur ↗ | 23,779 | 96 | 40 | Reconciled totals |
| 27 | Moirang ↗ | 27,694 | 72 | 43 | Reconciled totals · printed station ID exception |
| 28 | Thanga ↗ | 15,006 | 50 | 26 | Reconciled totals |
| 29 | Kumbi ↗ | 19,939 | 42 | 35 | Reconciled totals |
| 30 | Lilong ↗ | 27,238 | 79 | 39 | Reconciled totals |
| 31 | Thoubal ↗ | 25,489 | 86 | 40 | Reconciled totals |
| 32 | Wangkhem ↗ | 26,037 | 68 | 39 | Reconciled totals |
| 33 | Heirok ↗ | 25,887 | 173 | 39 | Reconciled totals |
| 34 | Wangjing Tentha ↗ | 23,550 | 299 | 39 | Reconciled totals |
| 35 | Khangabok ↗ | 29,821 | 207 | 47 | Reconciled totals |
| 36 | Wabgai ↗ | 23,972 | 200 | 36 | Reconciled totals |
| 37 | Kakching ↗ | 18,983 | 429 | 34 | Reconciled totals |
| 38 | Hiyanglam ↗ | 19,622 | 170 | 35 | Reconciled totals |
| 39 | Sugnoo ↗ | 19,423 | 198 | 35 | Reconciled totals |
| 40 | Jiribam ↗ | 18,527 | 242 | 40 | Reconciled totals |
| 41 | Chandel ↗ | 42,354 | 21 | 76 | Reconciled totals |
| 42 | Tengnoupal ↗ | 41,803 | 51 | 70 | Reconciled totals |
| 43 | Phungyar ↗ | 28,262 | 11 | 72 | Reconciled totals |
| 44 | Ukhrul ↗ | 38,806 | 20 | 68 | Reconciled totals |
| 45 | Chingai ↗ | 39,064 | 24 | 66 | Reconciled totals |
| 46 | Saikul ↗ | 32,492 | 32 | 56 | Reconciled totals |
| 47 | Karong ↗ | 49,735 | 4 | 72 | Reconciled totals |
| 48 | Mao ↗ | 50,686 | 27 | 71 | Reconciled totals |
| 49 | Tadubi ↗ | 44,349 | 51 | 77 | Reconciled totals |
| 50 | Kangpokpi ↗ | 25,199 | 98 | 39 | Reconciled totals |
| 51 | Saitu ↗ | 39,799 | 73 | 67 | Reconciled totals |
| 52 | Tamei ↗ | 34,850 | 15 | 86 | Reconciled totals |
| 53 | Tamenglong ↗ | 27,722 | 19 | 59 | Reconciled totals |
| 54 | Nungba ↗ | 21,461 | 20 | 45 | Reconciled totals |
| 55 | Tipaimukh ↗ | 12,829 | 14 | 40 | Reconciled totals |
| 56 | Thanlon ↗ | 15,770 | 10 | 39 | Reconciled totals |
| 57 | Henglep ↗ | Withheld | — | — | Official sources disagree |
| 58 | Churachandpur ↗ | 29,559 | 140 | 74 | Reconciled totals |
| 59 | Saikot ↗ | 44,966 | 38 | 71 | Reconciled totals |
| 60 | Singhat ↗ | 23,705 | 29 | 51 | Reconciled totals |
59/60 segment tables released; 58 have no unresolved station-level audit flag. Numerical checks and selected page comparisons completed 21 October 2026. Original publication-time availability remains unverified for historical replay inclusion. Earlier Assembly benchmarks and current twelve-slot feature snapshots remain unchanged.
A 2024 Parliamentary segment observation cannot enter a 2017 or 2022 prediction. Its election type remains Parliamentary context even when its geographic unit has an Assembly constituency number.
Date captured by this research snapshot; not the first source publication date. A later capture does not prove historical availability. Earlier source publication/archive timestamps are not independently established here.
The directory columns record the 2026 capture. They do not certify membership on a different date. A listed vacancy has no party value; it is shown as not applicable when its observation is within the cut-off.
Complete verified 2027 nominee sets, verified alliance assumptions and reviewed representative opinion inputs remain unavailable in this register. That is a coverage limit, not a claim that no announcements or studies exist.
↗ Each cloud build recomputes the inventory from three versioned datasets and checks the committed snapshot. Missing values are not zero. Capture dates are not original publication dates.