Opening the atlas…
FORECAST RESEARCH / GEOGRAPHIC COMPARABILITY
The same constituency number is a starting point. Before comparing elections, establish which territorial framework applied and what the sources actually prove.
RESEARCH SNAPSHOT 22 October 2026
REFERENCE PERIOD Two dated 2009 ECI/PIB releases and selected guidance from the February 2019 candidate handbook
SCOPE Documentary context and a limited AC-number input acceptance; limited winner-party replay released separately; no certified territory
The recovered sources consistently identify Manipur as an exception to the new delimitation exercise described under the 2002 Act. That supplies dated official context. It does not, by itself, establish the exact territorial equivalence of every seat in 2007 and 2012.
The original files are archived with retrieval dates and SHA-256 hashes. Each finding below has a specific locator and a specific limit. A later handbook is not a contemporary election notification; a Parliamentary seat-count table is not an Assembly boundary survey.
↗ The source reference date, archive capture date and legal effective date are different concepts. This page records the first two where supported; it does not infer the third. These historical observations are not advice on current election law.
THE SOURCE CHAIN / READ EACH DOCUMENT IN SCOPE
01 / 2 March 2009
The schedule identifies Manipur among the exceptions to the new delimitation exercise and the 2008 implementation described in the paragraph.
Paragraph 8 · Delimitation of Parliamentary and Assembly Constituencies
Read the published paragraph and captured native text blocks; original HTML archived.
Open the original official source ↗This is dated 2009 operational context. It does not itself list the exact extent of each Assembly seat in the 2007 and 2012 elections.
Captured 2026-10-22 · Original HTML archived · original file hash retained in the download.
02 / 3 March 2009
The Parliamentary seat-count table marks Manipur with a footnote for states excluded from the delimitation exercise.
Table 1 · Manipur row and asterisk footnote
Read the published row, table heading and exclusion footnote; original HTML archived.
Open the original official source ↗The table describes Parliamentary seat counts and reservations. It is not an Assembly boundary table; unchanged counts do not prove unchanged extents.
Captured 2026-10-22 · Original HTML archived · original file hash retained in the download.
03 / February 2019 edition
The handbook names Manipur among the exceptions to re-determination under the Delimitation Act, 2002. It directs candidates to consult an up-to-date corrected constituency order.
PDF page 24 · printed page 20 · section 1.17.1
Visually inspected original PDF page 24; edition wording checked against the published title-page text. Other 471 pages are not claimed as visually reviewed.
Open the original official source ↗This is later candidate guidance, not the original delimitation order, a 2012 election notification or a certified map. Do not treat the edition date as a legal effective date.
Captured 2026-10-22 · 472 PDF pages; selected page 24 reviewed · original file hash retained in the download.
22 OCTOBER 2026 / A LIMITED SOURCE-ACCEPTANCE FINDING
The documentary source chain is accepted for a descriptive 2007→2012 winner-party replay input, joined by explicitly printed Assembly constituency numbers. This is a research acceptance decision, not certified territorial equality. The separately verified replay is now available in the validation lab.
The original 2012 CEO report compares Assembly 2007, Lok Sabha 2009 and Assembly 2012 observations under the same sixty AC numbers on PDF pages 30–31. Its elected-member list on pages 33–34 supplies the 2012 seat labels and reservation tags. The state profile on page 8 records 40 General, 1 SC and 19 ST seats.
Only the table heading, AC structure, labels and reservation categories are used here. No turnout figure or denominator from that comparison table is promoted into a model or validated by this review.
Inspect the archived 2012 comparison · pages 30–31 ↗The archived 2018 ERO/AERO handbook reprints section 8(1)(b), which expressly connects Manipur’s 1976 framework to the 2008 consolidation. The dated 2009 ECI material and later 2019 guidance corroborate the exception to the new delimitation exercise.
Together with the contemporaneous AC comparison, this supports the limited documentary join. An unchanged name or seat count alone would not establish it. The complete original extent schedule and every corrected order have not been independently compared.
Inspect the legal reprint · PDF 108, printed 99 ↗| AC | 2007 register label | 2012 register label | Reservation in both | 2012 comparison-table label | Source locators |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khundrakpam | KHUNDRAKPAM | General | Kundrakpam | 2007 PDF 13, entry 1 ↗ 2012 PDF 33, entry 1 ↗ Comparison PDF 30, AC entry 1 |
| 2 | Heingang | HEINGANG | General | Heingang | 2007 PDF 13, entry 2 ↗ 2012 PDF 33, entry 2 ↗ Comparison PDF 30, AC entry 2 |
| 3 | Khurai | KHURAI | General | Khurai | 2007 PDF 13, entry 3 ↗ 2012 PDF 33, entry 3 ↗ Comparison PDF 30, AC entry 3 |
| 4 | Kshetrigao | KSHETRIGAO | General | Kshetrigao | 2007 PDF 13, entry 4 ↗ 2012 PDF 33, entry 4 ↗ Comparison PDF 30, AC entry 4 |
| 5 | Thongju | THONGJU | General | Thongju | 2007 PDF 13, entry 5 ↗ 2012 PDF 33, entry 5 ↗ Comparison PDF 30, AC entry 5 |
| 6 | Keirao | KEIRAO | General | Keirao | 2007 PDF 13, entry 6 ↗ 2012 PDF 33, entry 6 ↗ Comparison PDF 30, AC entry 6 |
| 7 | Andro | ANDRO | General | Andro | 2007 PDF 13, entry 7 ↗ 2012 PDF 33, entry 7 ↗ Comparison PDF 30, AC entry 7 |
| 8 | Lamlai | LAMLAI | General | Lamlai | 2007 PDF 13, entry 8 ↗ 2012 PDF 33, entry 8 ↗ Comparison PDF 30, AC entry 8 |
| 9 | Thangmeiband | THANGMEIBAND | General | Thangmeiband | 2007 PDF 13, entry 9 ↗ 2012 PDF 33, entry 9 ↗ Comparison PDF 30, AC entry 9 |
| 10 | Uripok | URIPOK | General | Uripok | 2007 PDF 13, entry 10 ↗ 2012 PDF 33, entry 10 ↗ Comparison PDF 30, AC entry 10 |
| 11 | Sagolband | SAGOLBAND | General | Sagolband | 2007 PDF 13, entry 11 ↗ 2012 PDF 33, entry 11 ↗ Comparison PDF 30, AC entry 11 |
| 12 | Keishamthong | KEISHAMTHONG | General | Keisamthong | 2007 PDF 13, entry 12 ↗ 2012 PDF 33, entry 12 ↗ Comparison PDF 30, AC entry 12 |
| 13 | Singjamei | SINGJAMEI | General | Singjamei | 2007 PDF 13, entry 13 ↗ 2012 PDF 33, entry 13 ↗ Comparison PDF 30, AC entry 13 |
| 14 | Yaiskul | YAISKUL | General | Yaiskul | 2007 PDF 13, entry 14 ↗ 2012 PDF 33, entry 14 ↗ Comparison PDF 30, AC entry 14 |
| 15 | Wangkhei | WANGKHEI | General | Wangkhei | 2007 PDF 13, entry 15 ↗ 2012 PDF 33, entry 15 ↗ Comparison PDF 30, AC entry 15 |
| 16 | Sekmai (SC) | SEKMAI (SC) | SC | Sekmai | 2007 PDF 13, entry 16 ↗ 2012 PDF 33, entry 16 ↗ Comparison PDF 30, AC entry 16 |
| 17 | Lamsang | LAMSANG | General | Lamsang | 2007 PDF 13, entry 17 ↗ 2012 PDF 33, entry 17 ↗ Comparison PDF 30, AC entry 17 |
| 18 | Konthoujam | KONTHOUJAM | General | Konthoujam | 2007 PDF 13, entry 18 ↗ 2012 PDF 33, entry 18 ↗ Comparison PDF 30, AC entry 18 |
| 19 | Patsoi | PATSOI | General | Patsoi | 2007 PDF 13, entry 19 ↗ 2012 PDF 33, entry 19 ↗ Comparison PDF 30, AC entry 19 |
| 20 | Langthabal | LANGTHABAL | General | Langthabal | 2007 PDF 13, entry 20 ↗ 2012 PDF 33, entry 20 ↗ Comparison PDF 30, AC entry 20 |
| 21 | Naoriya Pattanglakpa | NAORIYA PAKHANGLAKPA · literal variant | General | Naoria Pakhanglakpa | 2007 PDF 13, entry 21 ↗ 2012 PDF 33, entry 21 ↗ Comparison PDF 30, AC entry 21 |
| 22 | Wangoi | WANGOI | General | Wangoi | 2007 PDF 13, entry 22 ↗ 2012 PDF 33, entry 22 ↗ Comparison PDF 30, AC entry 22 |
| 23 | Mayang Imphal | MAYANG IMPHAL | General | Mayang Imphal | 2007 PDF 13, entry 23 ↗ 2012 PDF 33, entry 23 ↗ Comparison PDF 30, AC entry 23 |
| 24 | Nambol | NAMBOL | General | Nambol | 2007 PDF 13, entry 24 ↗ 2012 PDF 33, entry 24 ↗ Comparison PDF 30, AC entry 24 |
| 25 | Oinam | OINAM | General | Oinam | 2007 PDF 13, entry 25 ↗ 2012 PDF 33, entry 25 ↗ Comparison PDF 30, AC entry 25 |
| 26 | Bishnupur | BISHENPUR · literal variant | General | Bishnupur | 2007 PDF 13, entry 26 ↗ 2012 PDF 33, entry 26 ↗ Comparison PDF 30, AC entry 26 |
| 27 | Moirang | MOIRANG | General | Moirang | 2007 PDF 13, entry 27 ↗ 2012 PDF 33, entry 27 ↗ Comparison PDF 30, AC entry 27 |
| 28 | Thanga | THANGA | General | Thanga | 2007 PDF 13, entry 28 ↗ 2012 PDF 33, entry 28 ↗ Comparison PDF 30, AC entry 28 |
| 29 | Kumbi | KUMBI | General | Kumbi | 2007 PDF 13, entry 29 ↗ 2012 PDF 33, entry 29 ↗ Comparison PDF 30, AC entry 29 |
| 30 | Lilong | LILONG | General | Lilong | 2007 PDF 13, entry 30 ↗ 2012 PDF 33, entry 30 ↗ Comparison PDF 30, AC entry 30 |
| 31 | Thoubal | THOUBAL | General | Thoubal | 2007 PDF 13, entry 31 ↗ 2012 PDF 34, entry 1 ↗ Comparison PDF 30, AC entry 31 |
| 32 | Wangkhem | WANGKHEM | General | Wangkhem | 2007 PDF 13, entry 32 ↗ 2012 PDF 34, entry 2 ↗ Comparison PDF 30, AC entry 32 |
| 33 | Heirok | HEIROK | General | Heirok | 2007 PDF 13, entry 33 ↗ 2012 PDF 34, entry 3 ↗ Comparison PDF 30, AC entry 33 |
| 34 | Wangjing Tentha | WANGJING TENTHA | General | Wangjing Tentha | 2007 PDF 13, entry 34 ↗ 2012 PDF 34, entry 4 ↗ Comparison PDF 30, AC entry 34 |
| 35 | Khangabok | KHANGABOK | General | Khangabok | 2007 PDF 13, entry 35 ↗ 2012 PDF 34, entry 5 ↗ Comparison PDF 30, AC entry 35 |
| 36 | Wabgai | WABGAI | General | Wabagai | 2007 PDF 13, entry 36 ↗ 2012 PDF 34, entry 6 ↗ Comparison PDF 30, AC entry 36 |
| 37 | Kakching | KAKCHING | General | Kakching | 2007 PDF 13, entry 37 ↗ 2012 PDF 34, entry 7 ↗ Comparison PDF 30, AC entry 37 |
| 38 | Hiyanglam | HIYANGLAM | General | Hiyanglam | 2007 PDF 13, entry 38 ↗ 2012 PDF 34, entry 8 ↗ Comparison PDF 30, AC entry 38 |
| 39 | Sugnoo | SUGNOO | General | Sugnu | 2007 PDF 13, entry 39 ↗ 2012 PDF 34, entry 9 ↗ Comparison PDF 30, AC entry 39 |
| 40 | Jiribam | JIRIBAM | General | Jiribam | 2007 PDF 13, entry 40 ↗ 2012 PDF 34, entry 10 ↗ Comparison PDF 31, AC entry 1 |
| 41 | Chandel (ST) | CHANDEL (ST) | ST | Chandel | 2007 PDF 13, entry 41 ↗ 2012 PDF 34, entry 11 ↗ Comparison PDF 31, AC entry 2 |
| 42 | Tengnoupal (ST) | TENGNOUPAL (ST) | ST | Tengnoupal | 2007 PDF 14, entry 1 ↗ 2012 PDF 34, entry 12 ↗ Comparison PDF 31, AC entry 3 |
| 43 | Phungyar (ST) | PHUNGYAR (ST) | ST | Phungyar | 2007 PDF 14, entry 2 ↗ 2012 PDF 34, entry 13 ↗ Comparison PDF 31, AC entry 4 |
| 44 | Ukhrul (ST) | UKHRUL (ST) | ST | Ukhrul | 2007 PDF 14, entry 3 ↗ 2012 PDF 34, entry 14 ↗ Comparison PDF 31, AC entry 5 |
| 45 | Chingai (ST) | CHINGAI (ST) | ST | Chingai | 2007 PDF 14, entry 4 ↗ 2012 PDF 34, entry 15 ↗ Comparison PDF 31, AC entry 6 |
| 46 | Saikul (ST) | SAIKUL (ST) | ST | Saikul | 2007 PDF 14, entry 5 ↗ 2012 PDF 34, entry 16 ↗ Comparison PDF 31, AC entry 7 |
| 47 | Karong (ST) | KARONG (ST) | ST | Karong | 2007 PDF 14, entry 6 ↗ 2012 PDF 34, entry 17 ↗ Comparison PDF 31, AC entry 8 |
| 48 | Mao (ST) | MAO (ST) | ST | Mao | 2007 PDF 14, entry 7 ↗ 2012 PDF 34, entry 18 ↗ Comparison PDF 31, AC entry 9 |
| 49 | Tadubi (ST) | TADUBI (ST) | ST | Tadubi | 2007 PDF 14, entry 8 ↗ 2012 PDF 34, entry 19 ↗ Comparison PDF 31, AC entry 10 |
| 50 | Kangpokpi | KANGPOKPI | General | Kangpokpi | 2007 PDF 14, entry 9 ↗ 2012 PDF 34, entry 20 ↗ Comparison PDF 31, AC entry 11 |
| 51 | Saitu (ST) | SAITU (ST) | ST | Saitu | 2007 PDF 14, entry 10 ↗ 2012 PDF 34, entry 21 ↗ Comparison PDF 31, AC entry 12 |
| 52 | Tamei (ST) | TAMEI (ST) | ST | Tamei | 2007 PDF 14, entry 11 ↗ 2012 PDF 34, entry 22 ↗ Comparison PDF 31, AC entry 13 |
| 53 | Tamenglong (ST) | TAMENGLONG (ST) | ST | Tamenglong | 2007 PDF 14, entry 12 ↗ 2012 PDF 34, entry 23 ↗ Comparison PDF 31, AC entry 14 |
| 54 | Nungba (ST) | NUNGBA (ST) | ST | Nungba | 2007 PDF 14, entry 13 ↗ 2012 PDF 34, entry 24 ↗ Comparison PDF 31, AC entry 15 |
| 55 | Tipaimukh (ST) | TIPAIMUKH (ST) | ST | Tipaimukh | 2007 PDF 14, entry 14 ↗ 2012 PDF 34, entry 25 ↗ Comparison PDF 31, AC entry 16 |
| 56 | Thanlon (ST) | THANLON (ST) | ST | Thanlon | 2007 PDF 14, entry 15 ↗ 2012 PDF 34, entry 26 ↗ Comparison PDF 31, AC entry 17 |
| 57 | Henglep (ST) | HENGLEP (ST) | ST | Henglep | 2007 PDF 14, entry 16 ↗ 2012 PDF 34, entry 27 ↗ Comparison PDF 31, AC entry 18 |
| 58 | Churachandpur (ST) | CHURACHANDPUR (ST) | ST | Churachandpur | 2007 PDF 14, entry 17 ↗ 2012 PDF 34, entry 28 ↗ Comparison PDF 31, AC entry 19 |
| 59 | Saikot (ST) | SAIKOT (ST) | ST | Saikot | 2007 PDF 14, entry 18 ↗ 2012 PDF 34, entry 29 ↗ Comparison PDF 31, AC entry 20 |
| 60 | Singhat (ST) | SINGHAT (ST) | ST | Singhat | 2007 PDF 14, entry 19 ↗ 2012 PDF 34, entry 30 ↗ Comparison PDF 31, AC entry 21 |
AC21 retains “Naoriya Pattanglakpa” and “NAORIYA PAKHANGLAKPA”; AC26 retains “Bishnupur” and “BISHENPUR”. The comparison table contains further literal label variants, also retained. The join follows the source AC number and documentary context.
This does not resolve the thirteen candidate-name differences or the six withheld Form 20 tables. A winner-party register and a complete candidate-vote table answer different questions.
Inspect the separate candidate-name comparison ↗The manipur-2007-2012-reference-replay-v1 protocol is committed before implementation. It fixes two rules: repeat the original prior seat-party code, or copy the prior statewide seat-leading non-independent party. Prior independent winners abstain in the seat-party rule.
Both rules are compared in the separate replay on a common eligible cohort, with separate full-eligibility denominators and all seat-level errors. Historical outcomes were already available when this protocol was written; no unseen test or prospective preregistration is claimed.
The 2018 and 2019 documents help a retrospective comparability audit. They cannot become features in a simulated 2012 prediction. Prediction inputs are limited to the original 2007 register; 2012 winners enter only the separate scoring stage.
No 2009 Parliamentary lead replaces an Assembly target. No 2024 result, 2026 directory or 2027 assumption enters the replay. The existing historical reports remain unchanged.
The source decision accepts a documentary AC-number join for winner-party research. It does not certify a GIS crosswalk, validate the complete territorial extents or prove original historical online availability.
No score, calibrated probability or 2027 favourite is released by this source decision. The separate replay retains these limitations; the original dated source-decision JSON remains an immutable pre-implementation record.
Inspect the verified 2007→2012 replay, errors and exclusions ↗
Selected original pages reviewed 22 October 2026 IST. Source acceptance is a documented research judgement. Complete extent certification, historical source-vintage proof, prospective validation remain unavailable.
THE DECISION / NO AUTOMATIC PROMOTION
| Requirement | Current status | Evidence needed |
|---|---|---|
| 2012 operational framework | Accepted for limited input | The source chain and contemporaneous 2012 AC comparison support a limited documentary winner-party input, not certified territorial equality. |
| Documented seat lineage | 60 entries reviewed | Sixty numbered entries and reservation tags reviewed; full original extent schedules and corrected orders remain unverified. |
| Versioned evaluation protocol | Frozen; replay verified | Rules, cohorts and input fingerprints frozen before implementation. Predictions, errors and fair denominators reproduced in cloud tests. |
The independent 2007 register supplies sixty original elected-member entries. The separate winner-party-only replay assesses that source directly, with source acceptance and exclusions fixed before score execution.
That decision does not repair the six withheld candidate-vote tables. Full vote reconciliation, source-name identity adjudication and geographic comparability remain separate questions.
The existing historical reference and Parliamentary-context replays are unchanged. This review adds no fitted model, calibrated probabilities or prospective validation.
Thirteen name differences remain unresolved in the register comparison. The reference map remains contextual geography, with its publisher’s limitations; it cannot certify historic seat boundaries.
↗ Reviewed 22 October 2026 IST. Selected documentary review only; no complete all-page review, certified GIS crosswalk, original historical publication-version proof or current-law assurance. All missing evidence remains explicit.