ASSEMBLY CONSTITUENCY 40 / GEN

Jiribam.

Three Assembly elections, read through the candidate-level public record.

2012

THOUDAM DEBENDRA SINGH

INC · official election-day winner

Full candidate totals not reconciled

Candidate results have not passed transcription and reconciliation for this election.

↗ CEO Manipur · 2012 report ↗

CONSTITUENCY RESEARCH NOTE / AC 40

Jiribam,
beneath the headline.

CALCULATED FINDING / COMPLETE WINNER COVERAGE

Jiribam changed its election-day winning party in 2 of the two observed transitions between 2012, 2017 and 2022. Both observed transitions involved a different winning party. That pattern does not identify individual voter movement or explain why the changes occurred.

2012INC

THOUDAM DEBENDRA SINGH

2017IND

ASHAB UDDIN

2022JD(U)

Md. Achab Uddin

↗ CEO Manipur · independent winner registers for all three elections. Election-day representation, not present Assembly membership.

COMPETITION

2022 · the latest reconciled contest

MD. ACHAB UDDIN received 12,313 of 26,069 candidate votes (47.23%). NAMEIRAKPAM BUDHACHANDRA SINGH followed with 11,897 (45.64%). The margin was 416 votes, or 1.60 percentage points of candidate votes.

The winner did not exceed half of candidate votes. Winning under plurality rules does not require support from a majority on this denominator. The top two candidates together accounted for 92.87%, leaving 7.13% for the remaining candidates.

The contest had 4 candidates and an effective-candidate count of 2.30. The latter weights candidates by vote share: it distinguishes a field with many very small candidacies from one with several substantial competitors.

↗ Official Form 20 · PDF p.101 ↗. Descriptive metrics, not a forecast.

COMPARISON

Read comparable denominators.

2 of three elections have a full published candidate contest for Jiribam. Missing years interrupt the numerical series. A blank cell is a research gap, not zero support.

Margin percentage divides the winner–runner-up gap by all candidate votes in that election. It is not turnout, not a percentage of electors, and not a uniform swing required at the next election. Changes can reflect candidates, alliances, entry, participation and other conditions.

The party-share table compares 2017 with 2022 because both contests reconcile. A party absent from a complete candidate list has zero recorded candidate votes in that contest. Alliance support and voters' second preferences are not observed.

Interpreting the result as incumbent retention requires dated officeholding, by-election and party-switch records. Similar candidate names across years are not sufficient to establish personal continuity.

Jiribam · contest structure and denominators
YearCandidate votesWinning shareMarginMargin / votesTop two shareEffective candidates
2012Not availableUnavailableNot availableUnavailableUnavailableUnavailable
201722,55136.31%1,6507.32 pp65.31%3.92
202226,06947.23%4161.60 pp92.87%2.30
Party candidate-vote shares · 2017 → 2022
Party20172022Change
JD(U)0.00%47.23%47.23 pp
IND36.31%0.00%-36.31 pp
BJP14.19%45.64%31.45 pp
INC29.00%2.86%-26.13 pp
NEIDP12.47%0.00%-12.47 pp
NPF5.16%0.00%-5.16 pp
NPP2.88%4.27%1.39 pp

↗ Calculated from complete candidate lists. A party-share change is not evidence that the same individuals changed parties.

What needs a separate local evidence base

Current service access, displacement, livelihoods, road reliability, public works and rehabilitation outcomes need dated local records. State averages and historical map district labels cannot establish these conditions for Jiribam. Community composition and individual political preferences are not inferred from a candidate's name, reservation category or constituency geography.

Read the statewide transition and competition study ↗

Continuity
and change.

Compare election-day candidates and parties. A change in winning party does not establish why voters changed their choices. Defections, by-elections and boundary changes require separate records.

District and hill/valley classification are withheld until a versioned administrative crosswalk is reviewed. Historical map district labels are not presented as current districts.

Return to the electoral atlas ↗