Opening the atlas…
RESEARCH / ELECTIONS
A complete 60-seat party-transition study, a matched-constituency margin comparison and an auditable view of published candidate contests.
01 / COMPLETE SEAT REGISTER
Track the same 60 constituency numbers between two elections. These are transitions in winning-party labels, not movements of individual voters.
BJP moved from 21 to 32 seats. It retained 16, gained 16 from other winning-party labels and lost 5. The net change (+11) is gains minus losses; it is not the number of new wins.
This distinction separates an expanding party with high churn from one holding a stable base. It does not establish organizational strength, candidate loyalty or reasons for a constituency's result.
| 2017 / 2022 | AITC | BJP | INC | IND | JD(U) | KPA | LJP | NPF | NPP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AITC | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| BJP | — | 16 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | 4 |
| INC | — | 12 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 2 | — | 1 | 2 |
| IND | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| JD(U) | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| KPA | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| LJP | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| NPF | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | 4 | — |
| NPP | — | 2 | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | 1 |
↗ Calculated from the independent CEO winner registers, 60/60 in both elections. Diagonal cells retain the same winning-party label. Election-day labels remain separate from later defections, alliances and House membership.
| AC | Constituency | 2017 winner / party | 2022 winner / party | Party outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Heingang ↗ | NONGTHOMBAM BIREN SINGH · BJP | Nongthombam Biren Singh · BJP | Retained |
| 3 | Khurai ↗ | LEISHANGTHEM SUSINDRO MEITEI · BJP | Leishangthem Susindro Meitei · BJP | Retained |
| 4 | Kshetrigao ↗ | NAHAKPAM INDRAJIT · BJP | Sheikh Noorul Hassan · NPP | Lost |
| 5 | Thongju ↗ | THONGAM BISWAJIT SINGH · BJP | Thongam Biswajit Singh · BJP | Retained |
| 6 | Keirao ↗ | LOUREMBAM RAMESHWOR MEETEI · BJP | Lourembam Rameshwor Meetei · BJP | Retained |
| 7 | Andro ↗ | THOUNAOJAM SHYAMKUMAR · INC | Thounaojam Shyamkumar · BJP | Gained |
| 8 | Lamlai ↗ | KSHETRIMAYUM BIREN SINGH · INC | Khongbantabam Ibomcha · BJP | Gained |
| 10 | Uripok ↗ | YUMNAM JOYKUMAR SINGH · NPP | Khwairakpam Raghumani Singh · BJP | Gained |
| 11 | Sagolband ↗ | RAJKUMAR IMO SINGH · INC | Rajkumar Imo Singh · BJP | Gained |
| 13 | Singjamei ↗ | YUMNAM KHEMCHAND SINGH · BJP | Yumnam Khemchand Singh · BJP | Retained |
| 14 | Yaiskul ↗ | THOKCHOM SATYABRATA SINGH · BJP | Thokchom Satyabrata Singh · BJP | Retained |
| 16 | Sekmai ↗ | HEIKHAM DINGO SINGH · BJP | Heikham Dingo Singh · BJP | Retained |
| 17 | Lamsang ↗ | SOROKHAIBAM RAJEN SINGH · BJP | Sorokhaibam Rajen Singh · BJP | Retained |
| 18 | Konthoujam ↗ | DR. SAPAM RANJAN SINGH · BJP | Dr. Sapam Ranjan Singh · BJP | Retained |
| 19 | Patsoi ↗ | AKOIJAM MIRABAI DEVI · INC | Sapam Kunjakeswor (Keba) Singh · BJP | Gained |
| 20 | Langthabal ↗ | KARAM SHYAM · LJP | Karam Shyam · BJP | Gained |
| 21 | Naoriya Pakhanglakpa ↗ | SOIBAM SUBHASCHANDRA SINGH · BJP | Sagolshem Kebi Devi · BJP | Retained |
| 23 | Mayang Imphal ↗ | KONGKHAM ROBINDRO SINGH · BJP | Kongkham Robindro Singh · BJP | Retained |
| 24 | Nambol ↗ | NAMEIRAKPAM LOKEN SINGH · INC | Thounaojam Basanta Kumar Singh · BJP | Gained |
| 25 | Oinam ↗ | LAISHRAM RADHAKISHORE SINGH · BJP | Irengbam Nalini Devi · NPP | Lost |
| 26 | Bishnupur ↗ | KONTHOUJAM GOVINDAS · INC | Konthoujam Govindas Singh · BJP | Gained |
| 27 | Moirang ↗ | PUKHREM SHARATCHANDRA SINGH · BJP | Thongam Shanti Singh · NPP | Lost |
| 28 | Thanga ↗ | TONGBRAM ROBINDRO SINGH · AITC | Tongbram Robindro Singh · BJP | Gained |
| 29 | Kumbi ↗ | SANASAM BIRA SINGH · INC | Sanasam Premchandra Singh · BJP | Gained |
| 33 | Heirok ↗ | THOKCHOM RADHESHYAM SINGH · BJP | Thokchom Radheshyam Singh · BJP | Retained |
| 34 | Wangjing Tentha ↗ | PAONAM BROJEN SINGH · INC | Paonam Brojen Singh · BJP | Gained |
| 36 | Wabgai ↗ | MD. FAJUR RAHIM · INC | Dr.usham Deben Singh · BJP | Gained |
| 38 | Hiyanglam ↗ | DR. RADHESHYAM YUMNAM · BJP | Dr. Yumnam Radheshyam Singh · BJP | Retained |
| 41 | Chandel ↗ | LETPAO HAOKIP · NPP | SS. Olish · BJP | Gained |
| 42 | Tengnoupal ↗ | D. KORUNGTHANG · INC | Letpao Haokip · BJP | Gained |
| 50 | Kangpokpi ↗ | NEMCHA KIPGEN · BJP | Nemcha Kipgen · BJP | Retained |
| 53 | Tamenglong ↗ | SAMUEL JENDAI KAMEI · BJP | Janghemlung Panmei · NPP | Lost |
| 54 | Nungba ↗ | GAIKHANGAM · INC | Dinganglung Gangmei · BJP | Gained |
| 56 | Thanlon ↗ | VUNGZAGIN VALTE · BJP | Vungzagin Valte · BJP | Retained |
| 57 | Henglep ↗ | T. THANGZALAM HAOKIP · BJP | Letzamang Haokip · BJP | Retained |
| 58 | Churachandpur ↗ | V. HANGKHANLIAN · BJP | L.M. Khaute · JD(U) | Lost |
| 59 | Saikot ↗ | T. N. HAOKIP · INC | Paolienlal Haokip · BJP | Gained |
02 / LIKE-FOR-LIKE OBSERVED SAMPLE
A comparison needs the same constituencies in both years. The current 2017–2022 matched sample contains 36 seats.
Margin is the winner–runner-up vote gap divided by candidate votes. Medians describe this observed matched sample. They are not statewide estimates; source readability and unresolved tables may make the sample unrepresentative.
A lower median is compatible with closer competition in these constituencies. It cannot identify which party's supporters moved, explain turnout, or predict the next contest. Candidate entry, coalition arrangements and the shape of the rest of the field can alter a margin.
| Constituency | 2017 margin | 2022 margin | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heingang | 4.42 pp | 58.27 pp | 53.84 pp |
| Khurai | 6.73 pp | 6.79 pp | 0.06 pp |
| Kshetrigao | 1.26 pp | 2.19 pp | 0.93 pp |
| Thongju | 27.61 pp | 23.20 pp | -4.41 pp |
| Lamlai | 3.34 pp | 0.42 pp | -2.91 pp |
| Thangmeiband | 0.67 pp | 15.76 pp | 15.09 pp |
| Uripok | 1.73 pp | 3.99 pp | 2.26 pp |
| Sagolband | 0.10 pp | 13.27 pp | 13.17 pp |
| Keishamthong | 14.24 pp | 0.74 pp | -13.50 pp |
| Singjamei | 10.56 pp | 12.15 pp | 1.59 pp |
| Yaiskul | 2.64 pp | 2.63 pp | -0.01 pp |
| Wangkhei | 14.79 pp | 2.34 pp | -12.45 pp |
| Lamsang | 4.59 pp | 1.27 pp | -3.33 pp |
| Patsoi | 0.37 pp | 1.99 pp | 1.62 pp |
| Bishnupur | 19.95 pp | 4.82 pp | -15.12 pp |
| Moirang | 1.19 pp | 6.17 pp | 4.97 pp |
| Thanga | 5.17 pp | 25.08 pp | 19.91 pp |
| Lilong | 4.34 pp | 1.68 pp | -2.65 pp |
| Wangkhem | 10.14 pp | 4.29 pp | -5.85 pp |
| Wangjing Tentha | 6.32 pp | 6.31 pp | -0.01 pp |
| Khangabok | 29.33 pp | 22.54 pp | -6.79 pp |
| Sugnu | 13.32 pp | 4.08 pp | -9.23 pp |
| Jiribam | 7.32 pp | 1.60 pp | -5.72 pp |
| Chandel | 5.04 pp | 58.43 pp | 53.39 pp |
| Tengnoupal | 11.21 pp | 15.31 pp | 4.10 pp |
| Ukhrul | 0.92 pp | 2.35 pp | 1.43 pp |
| Chingai | 23.88 pp | 5.72 pp | -18.16 pp |
| Saikul | 11.14 pp | 4.74 pp | -6.40 pp |
| Karong | 9.77 pp | 7.18 pp | -2.59 pp |
| Mao | 31.36 pp | 16.71 pp | -14.65 pp |
| Tadubi | 3.20 pp | 1.22 pp | -1.99 pp |
| Tamei | 2.32 pp | 4.40 pp | 2.08 pp |
| Tamenglong | 8.26 pp | 4.29 pp | -3.97 pp |
| Thanlon | 52.52 pp | 5.65 pp | -46.87 pp |
| Henglep | 1.13 pp | 28.48 pp | 27.35 pp |
| Singhat | 6.38 pp | 8.60 pp | 2.22 pp |
↗ Shares exclude NOTA and rejected ballots. Comparing the full 58-seat 2017 sample directly with the 37-seat 2022 sample would change the constituency composition; this view uses their intersection.
03 / CONTEST STRUCTURE
| Constituency | Winner party | Margin votes | Margin / votes | Winner share | Top two share | Effective candidates |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamlai ↗ | BJP | 121 | 0.42 pp | 35.39% | 70.36% | 3.23 |
| Keishamthong ↗ | IND | 187 | 0.74 pp | 35.20% | 69.66% | 3.33 |
| Tadubi ↗ | NPP | 549 | 1.22 pp | 47.87% | 94.53% | 2.23 |
| Lamsang ↗ | BJP | 400 | 1.27 pp | 48.11% | 94.96% | 2.21 |
| Jiribam ↗ | JD(U) | 416 | 1.60 pp | 47.23% | 92.87% | 2.30 |
| Lilong ↗ | JD(U) | 570 | 1.68 pp | 49.92% | 98.15% | 2.07 |
| Patsoi ↗ | BJP | 687 | 1.99 pp | 35.27% | 68.55% | 3.01 |
| Kshetrigao ↗ | NPP | 742 | 2.19 pp | 38.74% | 75.29% | 3.16 |
| Wangkhei ↗ | JD(U) | 753 | 2.34 pp | 36.09% | 69.83% | 3.05 |
| Ukhrul ↗ | NPF | 942 | 2.35 pp | 38.73% | 75.11% | 2.90 |
| Yaiskul ↗ | BJP | 632 | 2.63 pp | 40.45% | 78.28% | 2.91 |
| Uripok ↗ | BJP | 909 | 3.99 pp | 36.60% | 69.21% | 3.30 |
| Sugnu ↗ | INC | 1,016 | 4.08 pp | 50.93% | 97.77% | 2.09 |
| Wangkhem ↗ | INC | 1,292 | 4.29 pp | 29.49% | 54.70% | 4.38 |
| Tamenglong ↗ | NPP | 1,309 | 4.29 pp | 34.25% | 64.21% | 3.66 |
| Andro ↗ | BJP | 1,457 | 4.37 pp | 50.26% | 96.15% | 2.15 |
| Tamei ↗ | NPF | 1,698 | 4.40 pp | 50.87% | 97.35% | 2.10 |
| Saikul ↗ | KPA | 1,249 | 4.74 pp | 25.48% | 46.22% | 5.35 |
| Bishnupur ↗ | BJP | 1,409 | 4.82 pp | 46.60% | 88.38% | 2.47 |
| Thanlon ↗ | BJP | 751 | 5.65 pp | 36.59% | 67.53% | 3.57 |
| Chingai ↗ | NPF | 2,336 | 5.72 pp | 31.43% | 57.15% | 3.89 |
| Moirang ↗ | NPP | 2,222 | 6.17 pp | 40.04% | 73.91% | 2.91 |
| Wangjing Tentha ↗ | BJP | 1,913 | 6.31 pp | 51.96% | 97.62% | 2.09 |
| Khurai ↗ | BJP | 2,237 | 6.79 pp | 33.79% | 60.79% | 4.11 |
| Karong ↗ | IND | 3,542 | 7.18 pp | 34.86% | 62.54% | 3.86 |
| Singhat ↗ | KPA | 2,019 | 8.60 pp | 51.54% | 94.47% | 2.21 |
| Singjamei ↗ | BJP | 2,295 | 12.15 pp | 46.11% | 80.07% | 2.87 |
| Sagolband ↗ | BJP | 2,656 | 13.27 pp | 55.23% | 97.18% | 2.08 |
| Tengnoupal ↗ | BJP | 6,411 | 15.31 pp | 51.74% | 88.17% | 2.44 |
| Thangmeiband ↗ | JD(U) | 3,773 | 15.76 pp | 56.93% | 98.09% | 2.02 |
| Mao ↗ | NPF | 8,513 | 16.71 pp | 58.08% | 99.45% | 1.97 |
| Khangabok ↗ | INC | 7,803 | 22.54 pp | 50.36% | 78.18% | 2.64 |
| Thongju ↗ | BJP | 6,689 | 23.20 pp | 53.19% | 83.18% | 2.49 |
| Thanga ↗ | BJP | 5,251 | 25.08 pp | 62.54% | 100.00% | 1.88 |
| Henglep ↗ | BJP | 7,848 | 28.48 pp | 50.43% | 72.38% | 3.01 |
| Heingang ↗ | BJP | 18,271 | 58.27 pp | 79.13% | 100.00% | 1.49 |
| Chandel ↗ | BJP | 27,341 | 58.43 pp | 79.22% | 100.00% | 1.49 |
Effective candidates equals 1 divided by the sum of squared candidate-vote shares. Two equally supported candidates produce 2; a long field dominated by two candidates stays close to 2. This is a concentration measure, not a count of viable future contenders. A margin below 5 percentage points is a descriptive bin used here, not a validated forecast category.